{"id":4199,"date":"2025-04-23T10:59:11","date_gmt":"2025-04-23T08:59:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cdrterra.de\/?p=4199"},"modified":"2025-06-05T11:47:14","modified_gmt":"2025-06-05T09:47:14","slug":"estimating-afforestation-potential-in-climate-models-more-accurately","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cdrterra.de\/en\/news\/estimating-afforestation-potential-in-climate-models-more-accurately\/","title":{"rendered":"Estimating afforestation potential in climate models more accurately"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u00a9<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t \t\t\t

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\u00a9 Steven Kamenar, Unsplash<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t \t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t \t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t \t\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\n\t\t\n\t<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n

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CO\u2082 storage potential of forests is often unclear<\/h3>\n

Afforestation plays a central role in almost all climate scenarios that are compatible with the 1.5 or 2-degree target of the Paris Agreement. However, it is still unclear how reliably their CO\u2082 storage potential is represented in climate models. A research team led by Sabine Egerer and Julia Pongratz from the CDRterra consortium STEPSEC<\/a> has investigated this question. Their study, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters<\/em>, analyzes the (re)afforestation in eight climate models of the current CMIP6 comparison, which forms the basis for the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.<\/p>\n

Substantial discrepancies between the models<\/h3>\n

The analysis shows: The projected carbon uptake by forests varies greatly between the models. The reasons for this include differing definitions of land use types, different assumptions on historical afforestation, diverging satellite data and resolutions as well as varying model approaches to carbon dynamics.<\/p>\n

Recommendations for improved modelling<\/h3>\n

The authors provide specific recommendations on how future models can be harmonized: A standardized representation of tree cover and the carbon cycle should help to calculate the CDR potential of forests more realistically.
\nSabine Egerer emphasizes: “Afforestation currently has the largest carbon storage among terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (CDR) options and is likely to make a significant contribution to CDR in future. Deriving accurate estimates of future carbon uptake by forests from climate models is key to assessing future CDR potential.”<\/p>\n

The study was carried out as part of Sabine Egerer’s research stay at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and was funded by the LMU Postdoc Support Fund. Researchers from all participating modeling centers were actively involved – a strong example of international scientific cooperation.<\/p>\n

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Publication:<\/p>\n

Egerer, S. et al. (2025): <\/span>Forestation in CMIP6: Wide model spread in tree cover and land carbon uptake<\/span><\/i>, Environmental Research Letters. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/adc93e<\/span><\/p>\n\n\t<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n

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\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\tTo the study\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Afforestation is considered the most important land-based CDR method. A new CDRterra study shows that climate models differ greatly in their estimates of the CO\u2082 storage potential in forests \u2013 with consequences for the assessment of future climate protection strategies.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":4196,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[89],"tags":[148],"class_list":["post-4199","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-aktuelles-en","tag-publication"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nEstimating afforestation potential in climate models more accurately - CDRterra<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cdrterra.de\/en\/news\/estimating-afforestation-potential-in-climate-models-more-accurately\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Estimating afforestation potential in climate models more accurately - CDRterra\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Afforestation is considered the most important land-based CDR method. A new CDRterra study shows that climate models differ greatly in their estimates of the CO\u2082 storage potential in forests \u2013 with consequences for the assessment of future climate protection strategies.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/cdrterra.de\/en\/news\/estimating-afforestation-potential-in-climate-models-more-accurately\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"CDRterra\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-04-23T08:59:11+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-06-05T09:47:14+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/cdrterra.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/steven-kamenar-MMJx78V7xS8-unsplash-scaled.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Laura Schl\u00fcter\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Laura Schl\u00fcter\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cdrterra.de\/en\/news\/estimating-afforestation-potential-in-climate-models-more-accurately\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cdrterra.de\/en\/news\/estimating-afforestation-potential-in-climate-models-more-accurately\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Laura Schl\u00fcter\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cdrterra.de\/#\/schema\/person\/1ab8f6c8640706585b52a925348cf349\"},\"headline\":\"Estimating afforestation potential in climate models more accurately\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-04-23T08:59:11+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-06-05T09:47:14+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cdrterra.de\/en\/news\/estimating-afforestation-potential-in-climate-models-more-accurately\/\"},\"wordCount\":8,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cdrterra.de\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cdrterra.de\/en\/news\/estimating-afforestation-potential-in-climate-models-more-accurately\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/cdrterra.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/steven-kamenar-MMJx78V7xS8-unsplash-scaled.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Publication\"],\"articleSection\":[\"News\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cdrterra.de\/en\/news\/estimating-afforestation-potential-in-climate-models-more-accurately\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cdrterra.de\/en\/news\/estimating-afforestation-potential-in-climate-models-more-accurately\/\",\"name\":\"Estimating afforestation potential in climate models more accurately - 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