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ForestOvershoot
How much, when, and under what conditions can forests and the use of wood in Germany remove CO2.
ForestOvershoot is important because Germany needs reliable CO2 removal to meet its climate targets while forests and the forest sink face growing risks from climate change and disturbances. The project uses advanced forest, wood product, and building models to test different climate and management scenarios and quantify when and how forests and wood use in construction can provide negative emissions most effectively.
Project management
Dr. Christopher Reyer
Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Projekt duration
01.11.2025-31.10.2028Project partner
Dr. Hannes Böttcher, Dr. Klaus Hennenberg, Dr. Mirjam Pfeiffer, Öko-Institut e.V. (ÖKO)|Prof. Dr. Anja Rammig, Dr. Ben Meyer, Technical University of Munich (TUM)|Prof. Dr. Galina Churkina, Technical University of Berlin (TUB)|Prof. Dr. Ralf Kiese, Dr. Rüdiger Grote, Dr. Hannes Imhoff, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)|Dr. Rico Fischer, Julius Kühn Institute (JKI)|Dr. Thirza van Laar, Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Project goals
Germany cannot reach its climate targets without removing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere. Forests already absorb large amounts of CO2, but climate change, droughts, storms, insects, and forest damage are making this sink increasingly uncertain and have even led to a source in recent years. At the same time, wood can store carbon for long periods when it is used in long-lived products such as buildings. ForestOvershoot studies how these two options (forests and wood products) can work together to provide reliable carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in the future. The main research questions are: How much CO2 can German forests and wood products remove in the coming decades? When will this removal be most effective, especially if climate targets are temporarily exceeded (overshooting)? And how reliable are these CDR options under climate change, forest disturbances, and different forest management strategies?
The aim of the project is to quantify the potential, timing, and uncertainty of forest-based CDR in Germany under overshoot scenarios. The project focuses on Forest CDR, which combines CO2 uptake by growing forests with carbon storage in harvested wood products. CO2 is captured naturally through photosynthesis, stored in tree biomass and soils, and then kept out of the atmosphere for longer when wood is used in durable products like timber buildings.
ForestOvershoot uses several advanced forest models, wood product models, life-cycle assessments, and building carbon analyses to simulate different climate, disturbance, management, protection, and wood-use scenarios. By comparing multiple models with harmonized data, the project estimates uncertainties and trade-offs with other ecosystem services such as biodiversity, water regulation, and timber supply. The project is important because technical CDR options are currently expensive, while forest-based CDR is one of the lowest-cost options available. Reliable results from ForestOvershoot will directly support climate policy, national greenhouse gas reporting, and long-term planning for forests and sustainable construction in Germany.